Prism Of Gems

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There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.

A hearing before the Supreme Court would be the culmination of what has been the biggest sports betting-related development since PASPA. Perhaps no other issue has united gaming stakeholders from various companies, tribes, states and regulators.

Beginning with the US presidential elections in November 2024, when prediction markets catapulted into mainstream culture, their rise has been undeniable. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their valuations balloon to $40 billion and $21 billion, respectively, and the majority of the top US bookmakers have scrambled to expand into the prediction space in various forms, either by building their own exchanges, acquiring existing ones or engaging in market-making.

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The first is the ongoing cannibalization of in-person gaming by online casinos. The Mid-Atlantic is home to four of the country’s eight legal iGaming states: Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

While in-person casino revenue declined in Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, iGaming reported GGR growth in each jurisdiction. iGaming revenue in New Jersey was up 4.4%, Pennsylvania’s online casinos saw GGR climb almost 6%, and Delaware iGaming surged 35%.

Though Maryland, Virginia, and New York do not have iGaming, prediction markets offering trading on everything from sports to politics continue to make their platforms accessible. Controversial sweepstakes casinos additionally continue to operate in Virginia and Maryland.

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Bentley believes regulated operators are genuinely trying to do the right thing but says some mistakes could be mitigated through better automation and continuous monitoring. Enforcement statements also provide lessons that businesses should use to test their own exposure.

“It would be crazy to say that these cases are positive for the industry,” he says. “They will no doubt continue, but as an industry we need to try to reduce their frequency.”

Enforcement publicity may lack context, and some settlements may involve errors rather than systemic recklessness. But the sector cannot control how its opponents use these cases. It can only reduce the supply.